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Ten Points of Debate from the Weekend's Premier League Fixtures

1. The Villa Heist: Rogers & Emery's Masterclass

Are match outcomes sometimes deceive? It's a valid query. The Villans' triumphant run continued against Manchester United, accompanied by the lingering concerns. Statistically, they were inferior by several measures – a lower shot count (12-15), reduced ball control (43-57), a scarcity of clear opportunities (2-3). As usual, the victory was tightly contested. As usual, the xG metric was unimpressed: reports suggest United had the slight advantage 1.31-1.02. But, as every fan knows games are not won by xG. They are won by collective effort, shrewd management and moments of magic – and Villa boast the complete package. The young forward could be considered their sole standout, but he’s delivering as a timely gift. The Villa manager is crafty, battle-hardened, significantly more advanced of Ruben Amorim. If Rogers profited from a positional error, it was likely because the manager identified that Yoro was playing out of position, and directed his attacker to take up a wide position, drive inside and cause him problems. Talent and management, working together.

2. Amorim Continues to Fall Short

Following United's victory over Brighton 4-2 last month, their fans felt optimism return. They had won three league games in a row for the initial occasion under their manager. They ascended to fourth. And the wins were all good ones – over Brighton (a traditionally tricky opponent), Liverpool (away!) and Sunderland (at Old Trafford, facing a team fresh from the Championship, but still – a comfortable clean sheet). Senne Lammens looked solid, their forward line sparked and there was a positive mood. But then United went back to black. Over the next eight fixtures, two wins, six games without a win. At Villa Park they were the better team without ever appearing likely to triumph. Yes, Matheus Cunha scored a fine effort, but he also missed a sitter. Yes, United were unlucky with injuries (to important midfielders), but they gave away cheap scores. Following over a year in England, Amorim still hasn’t worked out how to claim three points.

3. Arteta's Men Win Ugly to Return to the Summit

It was an 8pm kick-off on the Saturday before Christmas but a distinct lack of quality in the attacking areas made for a sobering evening. For Everton, the issue came as no surprise with creative forces absent, and their star man struggling to lift an entire team by himself. In many respects it is remarkable that the Toffees occupied a European spot in the table recently given they have played the entire season without a decent striker. For Arsenal and Mikel Arteta, while he relished a hard-fought three points and reclaiming first place of the table, the flaw should be of similar concern given their ambitions for the Premier League. Arteta insisted that positive results will inevitably grow more comfortable with graft and determination. But it is fairly soon in the season for a team that can start with elite players, while leaving talented players on the bench, to be needing to win ugly.

4. Guardiola's Strict Festive Regime for Champions

Over the festive period Pep Guardiola will monitor the scales to ensure his Manchester City players have not indulged too much. Guardiola said the players asked to enjoy a break after their recent victory but the request was denied because the performance was insufficient. So they will recuperate, training for the squad players, and post-holiday, then brief training for the Nottingham Forest game. Guardiola detailed how they can get better. “My strength is deciphering what happens in the game, locating the gaps – if the players were in these positions, we could generate more chances.” Guardiola will also enjoy a rest: “I will be on vacation with the family for celebrations. A trip to Barcelona is planned – I recommend it, the food is superb.”

5. Liverpool's Joy Tempered by Isak Blow

Alexander Isak’s goal at Tottenham felt, for a glorious few seconds, like an arrival. This was exactly what Liverpool invested heavily for him to do, to break tight games with his intelligent runs and finishing ability, and the calmness with which he converted from good service looked extremely positive. So the sight of him departing immediately, the victim of a reckless attempt, was a significant blow for the Liverpool manager and a shame for any neutral who would like to see a top-class forward hit full tilt again. Reports suggest Isak has suffered a broken leg and he probably endures a long time on the sidelines. It would be a significant setback with Liverpool having quietly moved into the Champions League places, putting together a string of positive results featuring Isak’s first Premier League goals in their colours. Their fortunes this season appear heavily dependent on those of their record signing.

6. A Contentious Call Saves Chelsea

Managers often complain about debatable rulings as a means of diverting the narrative from matters they want to keep private. The numerous points Newcastle have squandered when ahead this season is a prime example. Eddie Howe certainly did not seem particularly eager to mention that problematic pattern following his side’s inability to hold onto a 2-0 lead against Chelsea in a game they had to settle for a point in. Yet Newcastle’s manager was surely justified in criticising a decision made by the match officials not to award his team a penalty following a clear obstruction on Anthony Gordon. With the score then 2-1, a penalty could have altered the outcome. Was the decision to offer the opposing player the leeway informed by the player's history for being very clever at winning penalties and sometimes exaggerating? The take of a former England striker was revealing. “Gordon’s waiting,” was the analysis. “He expects the tackle and he's ready. I think he intends to hit the deck. But the force and aggression there … that’s not shielding the ball.”

7. Statistical Doom for Struggling Wolves

Brentford’s initial success on their travels this season spelled relief for the Bees' boss. More than just enjoying the victory, Andrews expressed empathy for Wolves, the club he came through at. “My formative years were here,” he said. Wolves’ situation is truly alarming; data analysts state – possibly kindly – their likelihood of the drop at 99.17%, leaving only pride at stake beyond professionalism. A experienced defender brutally spelled out|bluntly outlined|frankly

By

Jesus Boone

A professional poker player and strategy analyst with over a decade of experience in competitive tournaments and coaching.

Core Poker Studio

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